Russian-Ukraine War: Nigeria And The Missing Opportunity

Russia-Ukraine War, Nigeria Losing Opportunities. 

By 

Ahmad Murtala

Before this war broke out, my friends and I followed this trend every hour. He projected that this 'special military operation' would be averted, but I insisted that it won't—knowing vividly the role Russia plays in the world economy and if Russia invades, sanctions would follow. The patriotic grin in our faces widens that if oil goes high, Nigeria would earn more from oil, the largest income in the Nigerian economy. 

The war that broke out in eastern Europe which physically appears to involve two ancestral lands, and surreptitiously cutting across East and West, is not more far-fetched from plan than  coincidence—which West bluffs Ukraine to resist, leaving Zelenskyy at limbo. The war enjoyed support across the West that invited enormous slashes of sanctions which made the oil price near the roof and inflation stretching to hit cost of living. Can Nigeria take this advantage ?

As an oil producing country, total control of the said resources depends on the ability to refine the resources domestically for export, closing by all means necessary the importation window—mitigating and filling the gaps of unemployment, hike, standard of living. In this case, the blessing opportunity that comes knocking the Nigerian door may in other way become hell out of wealth. Say, we export crude oil, collect above $100 per barrel, and import the refined one, which would be higher than the normal price, in spite of the so-called subsidy, Nigerians would not realize the benefit.

The queue at filling stations is like a prerequisite for ending-year festivity that this government was lauded in removing the subsidy to ensure the erected queues are cleared off the roadside—the country breathed in a smooth air of relief, not knowing that the maneuver just fainted and did not die completely. What then reincarnates the queue again ? The anticipation of Dangote refinery to come on board is high since the queue appears to maintain its tradition. 

The privatization of the NNPC which seems to give Nigeria a total benefit realized from the oil shunning corruption in one way—from the onset, was running smoothly as planned but in another a detriment by importing a contaminated oil into the country without revoking the importers' license—this sabotage, gives rise to the price of oil in the country. The two intermittent scenarios: subsidy removal and contaminated oil came as alleged by some, that the former invited the latter to assure its stay, by hoarding the fuel under the pretext of the latter which will compel the people to call for the subsidy removal themselves.

It's brain draining to fathom the cause of maintaining the status quo of crude oil exportation while having three wrecked and stranded refineries. The huge amount spent on the revitalization of those refineries can build a gauge standard ultra modern one—the funds end up being funneled to the briefcase of few in the system.  As projected by Western countries, zero emission by 2050 is still realistic—what then would be the relevance of the oil if by this time we still rely on it ?

The excruciating sanctions that the West vowed to impose on Russia which it effect is boomerang on the West itself and the rest of the world is an open opportunity if Nigeria projected to revive the refineries—if West would boycott the Russian oil in spite of the huge negative impact on its economy, projecting by 2027 it would become self-reliant by means necessary, this is where we should copy the West in resilience not in copying the half-baked democracy.

The model of transparency christened by the Kyari-led  management, the MD NNPC limited which is termed Transparency Accountability & Performance Excellence (TAPE) that publishes its monthly financial report of the company for public scrutiny is expected to publish the names of the contaminated oil importers for the same publicity, since it added hardship on a common man. The said MD who ensured Nigerians that no cause for alarm the reserve is enough to cater for the domestic need—however opposite is the case.

To grab an opportunity is to notice it and to make use of it is to prepare for it. For a long time the subsidy and refinery have become an itching spot at the center of the back. The exportation of raw material and importation of refined products which cost the value of Naira and put it down before other currencies. Three decades away for oil to lose its value drastically, the preparation for the future is inevitable to mitigate and meet the future's requirements.

As the war keeps unfolding ugly atmosphere taking another dimension, challenging the status quo of the West, its escalation depends on other countries' involvement as Russia approves mercenaries from the Middle East and other volunteers supporting Ukraine at the front line. Nigeria is expected to document all that transpired and read between the lines of that which would push up the economy to ease hardship at least for once a Nigerian should bear witness that his country once had oil.