Russian-Ukraine War: Nigeria And The Missing Opportunity

Russia-Ukraine War, Nigeria Losing Opportunities. 

By 

Ahmad Murtala

Before this war broke out, my friends and I followed this trend every hour. He projected that this 'special military operation' would be averted, but I insisted that it won't—knowing vividly the role Russia plays in the world economy and if Russia invades, sanctions would follow. The patriotic grin in our faces widens that if oil goes high, Nigeria would earn more from oil, the largest income in the Nigerian economy. 

The war that broke out in eastern Europe which physically appears to involve two ancestral lands, and surreptitiously cutting across East and West, is not more far-fetched from plan than  coincidence—which West bluffs Ukraine to resist, leaving Zelenskyy at limbo. The war enjoyed support across the West that invited enormous slashes of sanctions which made the oil price near the roof and inflation stretching to hit cost of living. Can Nigeria take this advantage ?

As an oil producing country, total control of the said resources depends on the ability to refine the resources domestically for export, closing by all means necessary the importation window—mitigating and filling the gaps of unemployment, hike, standard of living. In this case, the blessing opportunity that comes knocking the Nigerian door may in other way become hell out of wealth. Say, we export crude oil, collect above $100 per barrel, and import the refined one, which would be higher than the normal price, in spite of the so-called subsidy, Nigerians would not realize the benefit.

The queue at filling stations is like a prerequisite for ending-year festivity that this government was lauded in removing the subsidy to ensure the erected queues are cleared off the roadside—the country breathed in a smooth air of relief, not knowing that the maneuver just fainted and did not die completely. What then reincarnates the queue again ? The anticipation of Dangote refinery to come on board is high since the queue appears to maintain its tradition. 

The privatization of the NNPC which seems to give Nigeria a total benefit realized from the oil shunning corruption in one way—from the onset, was running smoothly as planned but in another a detriment by importing a contaminated oil into the country without revoking the importers' license—this sabotage, gives rise to the price of oil in the country. The two intermittent scenarios: subsidy removal and contaminated oil came as alleged by some, that the former invited the latter to assure its stay, by hoarding the fuel under the pretext of the latter which will compel the people to call for the subsidy removal themselves.

It's brain draining to fathom the cause of maintaining the status quo of crude oil exportation while having three wrecked and stranded refineries. The huge amount spent on the revitalization of those refineries can build a gauge standard ultra modern one—the funds end up being funneled to the briefcase of few in the system.  As projected by Western countries, zero emission by 2050 is still realistic—what then would be the relevance of the oil if by this time we still rely on it ?

The excruciating sanctions that the West vowed to impose on Russia which it effect is boomerang on the West itself and the rest of the world is an open opportunity if Nigeria projected to revive the refineries—if West would boycott the Russian oil in spite of the huge negative impact on its economy, projecting by 2027 it would become self-reliant by means necessary, this is where we should copy the West in resilience not in copying the half-baked democracy.

The model of transparency christened by the Kyari-led  management, the MD NNPC limited which is termed Transparency Accountability & Performance Excellence (TAPE) that publishes its monthly financial report of the company for public scrutiny is expected to publish the names of the contaminated oil importers for the same publicity, since it added hardship on a common man. The said MD who ensured Nigerians that no cause for alarm the reserve is enough to cater for the domestic need—however opposite is the case.

To grab an opportunity is to notice it and to make use of it is to prepare for it. For a long time the subsidy and refinery have become an itching spot at the center of the back. The exportation of raw material and importation of refined products which cost the value of Naira and put it down before other currencies. Three decades away for oil to lose its value drastically, the preparation for the future is inevitable to mitigate and meet the future's requirements.

As the war keeps unfolding ugly atmosphere taking another dimension, challenging the status quo of the West, its escalation depends on other countries' involvement as Russia approves mercenaries from the Middle East and other volunteers supporting Ukraine at the front line. Nigeria is expected to document all that transpired and read between the lines of that which would push up the economy to ease hardship at least for once a Nigerian should bear witness that his country once had oil.

A Tale Of Presidency 2023:: Youth And Nigerian Politics

Youth And Nigerian Politics

By

Ahmad Murtala

Nigerian politics over the years has been predominantly blanketed by the aged political tycoons, who were once the playboys of the second republic politicians and are now taking over. The atmosphere appears very sterile in holding a promise for the youths in the field, by their level of sagacity and the thirst they have to bye pass wealth accumulation. This of course raises the suspense that if youths are allowed to take the lead, would Nigeria land in the safe hands ?

Some youths begin their political journey from campus in their undergraduate pursuit, copying from the existing status quo—sometimes having no clear ambition than to have the title appended on their names as honorifics, 'President' or 'Presdo' in their peer groups. People take the cue from their leaders, so also the youth—taking the cue from the other side of the Nigerian leaders, having herds of Presidential aids and protocols alike. The recent appearance of the SUG President in Federal University Dutse raised concern.  

Most of the youths are categorized into: highly educated (mostly the elites' children) the privileged  educated and under educated (who are the dustbin where hoodlums are recruited, for political thuggery). The first, who have the smooth ride to inherit their parent in the political arena or probably hook into a jumbo ministries, the second who the hope of future Nigeria relies upon, who took to the cue of the same status quo making it difficult to predict that positive results would manifest from them when given opportunity, the third—the hoodlums. 

The not-too-young-to-run policy that is meant to incorporate youths in the participation of politics is a clear demonstration of sanity which in one hand is a way forward and in other a disguise. Say, the average Nigerian youths of under forty who mostly begin a new life striving to establish themselves venture into politics with little or no dime to possess a party ticket and the fund to sponsor a campaign across the country, what then is the fate of this expensive policy ? the argument remains if the policy is not a disguise for the children of elites to have a smooth ride.

So far, youths have been given the opportunities across the fields, only to be disappointed in the long run by abusing the office. The strong allegation against Kogi state governor where billions of Naira stashed in Polaris bank was found by EFCC translates to weak hand of leadership which the governor presumed by many to be a youth—and the senator a representing Adamawa North Elisha Abbo, who was caught assaulting a lady inside a sex-doll mall, one begins to ponder where to find the vibrant youths who would take the lead.

The inscription in the minds of the youths to enjoy life to the fullest at the early stage by means necessary is flabbergasting—this mindset keeps them derailing from the track, many of which want to be elected to enjoy the same gravy which the system provides. Wringing out this flamboyant tendency from the political office would go a long way in instilling in the youths' mind that a leader is a servant of the people not their master.

Going back down the memory lane after independence, youths have demonstrated a good leadership during the military regime in the country, there was a hope that they hold promise for the country, the likes of Yakubi Gowon, Olusegun Obasanjo and even Buhari himself, they were lads when they took power and led by example of their time—the paved-way back then that allowed the youths in offices and power though was due to the less educated populace which today cannot accommodate such stance. 

The amoral practices that constitute electoral processes ranging from rigging, vote buying, result manipulation to some extent diabolism which makes the politics a 'dirty game' discourages most of the youths and thereby most of us become apathetic and lose hope. Nevertheless, there is a new-signed Electoral Act amendment which hopefully, the major filthy part of the processes would be cleansed and it begs for popular participation which the turn out is a light at the tunnel's end. 

A Hausa 'catchphrase' which presupposes looting tendency that says "Ana siyasa dan la'ada ne ba dan lada ba" meaning people go into politics for what they zip off at the end not for divinely reward" this went far and popular in the North and corrupts any idea a youth has to sanitize the system—until then, the time when this virus phrase erased in the youths' mind and have a clear vision of what the country looks like in the future—selfless youths who have country at heart not in brain and Ideology in politics we can say, they are ready to confront the likes of Tinubu who says youths should wait for their time to elapse.

Road to Aso Villa 2023

Road To Aso Villa 2023.

By 

Ahmad Murtala

Ever since, the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu declares his ambition to succeed the incumbent President Buhari, earlier this month, the political sphere: off and online stirred up debates both in favor of Tinubu and the potholes along his way, citing some irrelevant motif that may hinder his success or to any candidate; which are not the paramount of any buyable candidate at the moment; and of course for the electorates.

The intrinsic status quo of our polity entertains those factors that undermine the democracy and the governance—rating region, tribe, religion, age, school attended, above competency and capacity going even further to dig up the ancestral root of a candidate. The end result we are cultivating under this administration says a lot about the mistakes we've committed in the past: from 2015 to date—by using only those yardsticks to scrutinize a candidate. Can we still pelt with our intelligence to subscribe to the same mistake of the past come 2023 which appears a new dawn to our country ?

We imported the American presidential system of government, which is quite expensive and implemented its only cover-page. Multi-party system that compels too much spendings which a saleable candidate who is capable of taking a lead is hindered to contest by the processions—the ticket, the campaign, and the mobilization, but in this context, two major parties are on the run, which the rest endorses the party that has the chances of winning in subterranean maneuver.

The SouthEast has configured and domesticated PDP as its political party since 1999, while APC appears nascent in the region—the weakness of the ruling party and the deterioration of the security across the country under the watch of APC, makes the nascent party lose its credibility far to the NE. Say, the president is to emerge from the region, two impossibilities may arise. The Northern people have been stereotyped and characterize PDP as evil, callous and looters which most of the states in the region are under; and APC has lost its shining plate before the people based on what appears on the ground since coming to power in 2015. No matter the credit of the candidate from the SE, if APC deem it fit to give the flag bearer to the region to entertain Zoning as postulated by some Northern state governors, the chances are its success would be a bottleneck.

The polarization within the spheres of politics that SouthEast translates to secession if not given the chance to rule, it appears that PDP would have to play the same card of the last election, by choosing the running mate from the SouthEast, here the North would draw a line looking at the indices of the carnage their businesses faced in the region. Meanwhile, APC would play the SouthWest and the running mate from the North, perhaps Muslim-Muslim ticket. The result would be determined by the primaries from the parties in the couple of weeks ahead.  

Those countries that have built the social establishments and have a smooth working systems with literally little or no corruption, the age of presidential aspirant is not a matter of concern as we see Biden of US—not like Nigeria when chunks of domestic battle are entangled yet to be addressed. The age of the candidate matters a lot in this context. Tinubu, who appears to be more powerful so far from those who declared their aspiration, is brazenly feeble, if not a good diet and wealth that make politicians appear strong, most of the politicians at the frontline ought to assume coach duties guiding the upcoming ones. We forbid the like we've seen in this administration by encasing the president in the villa and plunge the country into anarchy.

From the view and the color of the game, Atiku Abubakar the former vice president would swiftly take the PDP flag and Tinubu APC. The dice is, both have been dented by the people's court to have maliciously accumulated wealth—having no other alternative polling box for the electorate. If history is to repeat itself, Buhari contested four times before he won, and now Atiku is running on his fifth time is likely to have a smooth ride on the basis of APC losing its credibility in security across the country. 

The extreme thirst for power to fulfill the 'need hierarchy' is not dangerous to the beholder alone, the motive is only to possess the authority without a sketched-architectural blueprint and clear manifestos which will coalesce with the national need. Buhari came on this platter and the end result is unbecoming. The two giants so far have not made it to the public the what-and-how to attend to the tangled problems agonizing every sector. The currently delicate security and imbalanced economy which are at the top, strangling the country by neck—finding it arduous to breathe. We for now, don't need the so-called 'kingmakers' who cannot heed or take advice from the public opinion but become foreign puppets—since, intrinsically, the presumption of superiority as the number-one citizen is established. 

Road to Villa 2023 must from the parties, play the game card that would sew together the polarization across the region. The Villa in 2023 and beyond begs for a head that heeds and having both stick and carrot in his hands, the one who has a clear understanding of foreign policies, and has immediate treatment to our problems both short and long-term solutions. If to suggest best candidates there are multitude of them from SS, SW and NW, both fit in into position of President and Vice President, but for now, let's see the outcome of the parties convention which is the utmost decider.

Incessant Defection and Electoral Sanity

Incessant Defection and Electoral Sanity 

By 

Ahmad Murtala

Ever since Nigeria turned over to the third republic, on the eve of the 21st century, there have been political parties—which the arena experienced the storm-and-shift of politicians from one party to the other like birds on forest trees. With the absence of national ambition in the defection, conniving with one another which the politicians depict over time, Nigerians in general and the electorates in particular are steeped to pay the price and still paying unconditionally. 

From the time we evacuated from Military Government to Civilian Rule, 1999 to date, there were enormous political parties created and died—some transformed to other acronyms which makes the ballot paper lengthy like a roll of tissue paper. Muhammadu Buhari, who was in APP before transforming to ANPP then CPC and now APC the merger of all the three—PDP for instance, remains till date which gave birth to all the presidents except one. One would ask, with all these chunks of parties some have no offices or heads at the national level, let alone state, what are their intrinsic 'core values' ?

For a professor in academics, dumping the field for politics has several reasons. Some would say he delves into the system with his sanitary towel to clean some dirt. Perhaps the ASUU versus FG in the frontline would be clean—but  what we see across board is contrary. Adamu Adamu who talks about ASUU over time is now the man in charge, he proves us wrong: or they delve into politics to taste the grandeur of national gravy which their taught-students are merrying and determining the affairs of the nation which is close to our motion for what we see.

The incessant defection occurs when two interests clash in the political party—sometimes dumping the party that brought a seating office holder into power, like we see in Zamfara state. This tells a lot about the filthy politics we run in the country. Deep down the well, there is a motive behind these defections, which of recent serving as a safe-haven for the crooks under the promise of a former APC leader who says "if you join APC all your sins are forgiven" that was not a joke, it's being practicalised.

If a policy should be put forth to regulate social media contents which according to the government is seditious in nature and insubordination then—the right to associate should be reviewed in this aspect, since it determines the future and well being of the country. It isn't sardonic to say, regulating party defection limiting it to minimal window is a violation of right of association. The window of right to associate should be left open so long as it rhymes with the national regulation. Every politician should have two access to defects in a lifetime. Say, he joins a party for the first time and he defects twice making it three political parties, by and large, anything outside this is a monkey play. 

The electoral act 2021 that seeks to panel beat the electoral process appears to ignore this tentative aspect. The credit and quality of a candidate should be determined if he has a clear path he traces, if he loses he loses not to deviate and he should restrategize for the next election. But what we see is once the power is gone, and he is outside the center table where the national cake is baked, the calculation to join the terrain of rolling trains on the rail is what dangles in their minds. Orubebe who disrupted the collation process in 2015 and FFK who spitted venomous and belligerence utterances against the ruling party and some of its members, he even went further to say, he rather die than to join APC have now defected for the ruling party—he is perhaps waiting for the nemesis of his words paving to his grave.

The clash of democratic values; the freedom of association and electoral sanity, which one is limited to individuals and the other concerns the general mass, one has to be subdued for the other. To do so, it begs for collective sweat to ensure the intended by-product becomes unattainable by extracting out the milk and honey in the political offices. No country would develop when its governing establishments become an industry that produces rich people overnight. It's the tallest branch of the tree. If everyone forsakes his profession for politics to lick the gravy it cannot accommodate us.

Every political party should be mandated by INEC—a provision of party constitution to include (each new member must spend at least 4 years before contesting for an office). This has two ends: it would instill the core values of the parties to its members and thereby a clear ideology would be intrinsically installed, and it would wedge this horrendous tendencies of defection from one party to another, since 4 years each tenure elapses.

The leverage in the hand-made poverty that is forcefully domesticated through sky-and-ground salary of politicians, makes it opportunistic tendencies that warrant the candidates to swift through political parties and conniving among each other spreading across parties is what I can call 'political apostasy'. Some even change the party from APC to PDP or vice versa four times in a tenure, can't we mature as humans ?

Nigerians have suffered the consequences of party defection over two decades. 'The way forward is the way inward' this country is owned by Nigerians and Nigerians must device means necessary to surmount this chronic mentality—this endemic that is brazenly dragging us back compelling us to walk one-step-forward-two-steps-backward can only deteriorate further the economic and developmental race in our polity and portrays Nigerians as incredible leaders before the international community.

Government Does Not Wail

Government Does Not Wail

By

Ahmad Murtala

Power sector in Nigeria over decades has become a bone inside a neck, strangulating the economy and wedging every ascending SMEs. The sector that befriended several heads of states and presidents and yet unproductive—Nigerians were tensed towards the end of Jonathan led administration that privatized the sector which added to the loomed darkness that If Buhari was elected, perhaps he could clear the mess.

Every government is installed by the people to scratch the hitching spot at the center of their backs, on that same presumption the government advertised itself. The brazen lacuna is the 'political will'—despite having the clear image that the problem lies with the DisCos. Nigerians have been entrapped in the bogus privatization agreement in 2013, which the investors shared according to the geopolitical zones extracting from the darkness they sell. A problem identified is half solved, what then constitutes a complaint ?

One can count how many times the Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari since assuming office the number of times he granted the press for presidential media chat since his second term in office. Of the records of his interviews, most of the questions thrown at him were hardly addressed. The beating around and incoherence to answer one topic for the other aggravates the anger the people have for the government over its three top manifestos. The same as expected, the question about the state of electricity in the country was thrown at him during the recent interview with the channels tv, the same wailing and blame game ensued on DisCos.

Every government where ever it based, is the first institution that is fed with a first-hand and genuine intelligence report, President in his words when asked his response affirms this assertion "let us try to understand the problem first, TCN is 100% government, but we inherited what they call DisCos almost divided the country almost to geopolitical zones what was the basis ?" President, perhaps does not have a defined entity called 'power' that is conferred on him—government does not wail but it acts. Evaluating the performance of the DisCos is what needs to be conducted if found less performing which is clear what it would be found, revoking the license should be the first option. 

In one of the session with Chimamamda Ngozi Adichie a renowned Nigerian writer with the former Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2021, Adichie asked Merkel about the status of the MoU with the Siemens company that was signed with Nigerian government to add to the national grid, she raised two concerns as the hindrances that subdue the kick start of the project which are funding and the need by the Nigerian government to use 50% local content. The long awaited muteness was revealed though at the detriment of Nigerians—if Siemens cannot execute the MoU the channel for other companies to step up should not be tight since we are at the receiving end.

Ever since Nigeria keyed into this agreement, she was running on the lose-win peddle,  injecting a huge amount of money, more than a trillion and a half over five years. What kept Nigeria from revoking the license given to the DisCos is the argument that its image would be dented before the other investors, that it would dry up the future possible investments and it would look like 'nationalization' alongside  the damages that the government would pay in return. This argument is tentative—If not the beneficiaries are political class, as the President cried, what would make an agreement lopsided at the detriment of the entire nation running at loss ?

Mambilla dam situated in the Taraba state of northeastern part of the country, has the potentiality of generating 4000 megawatts which will accrue to the national grid. Fortunately, it becomes a milking cow that political class make use of annually enriching themselves becoming billionaires overnight. The ministry also befriends several ministers of power—at the dawn of this administration, the president was rest assured that the work was going on without him supervising, which disrates the mark of leadership quality he has. At his second term, a reshuffle was made which brought in a new minister Engr Sale Mamman from the same state, only to disclose that all the pictures going round in social media were speculations, the locations was not cleared and no road access to the location, after some few months he was fired with his incompetency.

The centralized national grid like FAAC contributes to the setback of the power sector today. The interconnection between the stations which if one is faulty could affect the other part of the country, with almost every month the news of national grid collapsing taking front in newspaper pages—the old usage should be deracinated and allow each state to generate its own power via other means available. The gas reserve deposit should be tapped up for use in this regard and shun the hydroelectric means since it yielded no tangible result. 

Three options at hand: as the DisCos are divided into geopolitical zones, the licenses should be handed over to the governors of those states, or each state generating its own power decentralizing from the national grid or inviting foreign DisCos who have capital and the technical know-how to man major obstacle and the setback we see—but so long as these castrated, impotent, infertile and barren DisCos would remain spear headers of this sector, am afraid till Jesus Christ descend, Nigeria would not witness stable electricity.

The Call To Anarchy Inside Anarchy

The Call To Anarchy Inside Anarchy.  

By

Ahmad Murtala

The inferno of insecurity in the country especially in the North is quite alarming to all citizens concerned both within and the diaspora. The barbarism unleashed due to the haggard, ugly, effigy of slack of security witnessed by the peasants across NorthWest since the coming of this administration is calamitous, the kind of wretched mutilation this helpless housewives experienced cannot be quantified, after being raped and pour acid into their private part—imagine the trauma.

There has never been in history, an individual or group of people living under a sovereign state and that individual or people overpower the government of the land. But, Bello Turji a notorious self-acclaimed bandit leader and his allies Dogo Gide and the rest seem to establish an untouchable casual kingdom under Nigerian Government placing tax on the peasants, dethroning and enthroning traditional leaders as desired, how long can this last ?

As people become so straddled with the utterances of Aminu Bello Masari, the governor of Katsina state, calling for people to take arms in self-defense. "Everyone should stand and defend himself" he said as a response when he was asked by a BBCHausa correspondent on the solution and the way forward. Masari vented out his excoriating view concerning the unending tragedy that people face day-in-day-out. In the same video of 5 minutes 15 seconds, he continued expressing his stand as thus… 

"When they raid us, we should stand against them, if we die, we are martyrs—if they come and we run into hidden and; in the morning we sprout out abusing community leaders, governor or president; or block road in mass protest, this blockage will affect commuters who are going about their business and what is their fault, if you are truly a man when bandits come why going to hide?—this is why I said everyone should take arms, holding prayer firmly is also an arm…" this is clearly a campaign on fuelling the anarchy that we dived into and already battling with.

He continued, "we have a shortage of security personnel, Katsina state for instance, does not have three thousand policemen—assuming in our population, how many people each police is policing ? It's a crusade (jihadi) when you lose your life in this course—we do not subscribe to the idea of hunters going after them, rather vigilante group defending their territories where each knows his people and they know him. We are ready to support anyone who needs help and the police are ready to register the arms that people possess. A strict translation  virtually verbatim.

Four or Eight years tenure that has beclouded our leaders foresight, smoldering the security architecture inwardly that even after the tenure they would continue to have the same security cover up is hallucinating, because, once the handing over is done, they are strip off from the canopy. Leaders are known for taking the lead, like we see, Idris Deby of Chad in a warfront and recently Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia. The call to take arms confronting the bandits whenever they raid, if answered to, we anticipate to see Masari taking the lead in the vigilante regalia may be he would be the first to be shot at since there is a presidential order for anyone seeing with a gun to be gun down, by the federal army.

This isn't the first time a high ranking government official would express such a kind of belligerent utterance that clearly denotes a failed government. Gen Bashir Salihi Magashi, the defense minister, who is saddled with the coordination of security establishments across the country once said that people should defend themselves. Self-defense in itself, does not need to be told to any sane individual—it's inculcated already. However, in a conundrum of raiding helpless people who voted for a government on the platter of responsibility to secure their lives and property who faithfully rely that the elected government is capable of doing so—the ponder on their minds would always be such person who said so should resign since the task is beyond his capability, why then would they relax in government houses instigating people to defend themselves and gulping their hard-earned tax via salary paying to their coffers ?

Doffing off the responsibility placed on the shoulders of elected or appointed individuals by themselves hiding behind frivolous excuses such as inducing the populace to martyrdom on nonreligious course—this translates the weakness of the electorates. Yes, in Islam, there are many ways one can die as a martyr, this of course is among, does that warrant to putting responsibility aside and zipping up the 'security vote' meant to contain security threat unused to individual accounts while lives are wasting ? Democracy provides the avenue to protest in mass and vent out the anger to bring back a derailing leader to account. Why are they subverting any protest calling to order the leaders to hold their jobs firmly, is protest a threat to democracy ?

The shortage of security personnel to man the border and the Nigerian populace which each police is policing more than 300 people is foreboding. The prognostication was planted in the mind of every sane patriotic individual, that running the most black populous country on Earth with a paltry security personnel is just a time-bomb, the presage was foresighted before plunging. The need for every state to form its own security structure manning the state territory thereby, complementing the Federal police is something to be done in alacrity. It's illogical running the country on that delicate stance.

I begin to imagine the intricacy and the hemorrhage that is about to ensue in a society consisting of AK47 in every household, and a powdered gun or machete by every child confronting a bloody nonreligious war in a country that budgets billions of Naira on security, through the resources of the land. If that is the case, we should shut down all government establishments knowing that we fully embrace anarchy, if bandits eliminate us all they take over the country and vice versa. But we've seen some states that are more bloody like Abia conducting election stashing thirty thousand policemen—but as a C-in-C it's forbidden to utter such words and remain on the mantle. Vacate the seat first and express whatever stance you hold.